With Pennsylvania’s lawmakers overriding their own governor’s stay-at-home orders, we are soon to be in a situation akin to the meme I saw a few days ago about how designating a “peeing section of the pool” is about as effective as a state-by-state approach is going to be.
For us, we have long come to the realization that we truly have to take care of ourselves and our families. For every instructive recommendation (CDC two months ago: No Need For Masks!) there is an equal and opposite recommendation. So, we gather up the best of the bunch and do that – whatever that may be. For us, it is quarantining every non-perishable item that comes to our door for 72 hours. Not necessary say some. Others, it is not enough.
So, what will you be doing differently as states (likely including ours) opens up for business?
Scientists say we will be dealing with the disease for years to come – making a vaccine isn’t the only hurdle. Right now, there are not enough chemicals, there are not enough vials for testing – we are so far from being able to produce and push the vaccine out to the public, that we can almost assuredly be resigned to getting this virus when life returns to normal over the next two years unless we continue to stay inside. Most are saying four years would be the realistic target for a widely available vaccine (the creation of the vaccine, then the testing, and then the production and dissemination.) And, most have already assured us that the virus will peak again and again over the next few years.
Even testing supplies are again scarce – and effective tracking solutions reside somewhere in the far-off distance. Without testing, we don’t know what we don’t know.
Testing only gives us one small piece of the puzzle. They still have no idea how virulently this virus is transmitted. “Social” transmission (the transmission of the virus with no known host) has yet to be understood.
Talk to any two scientists and one will say the virus is most deadly in the aerosol form and that can spread up to 26 feet at any point. Another will say the virus is mainly transmitted through touch. Which leaves us not really knowing how to protect ourselves, because, if we are honest, and I’ve now spoken to two clinicians, at NIH and Johns Hopkins, they don’t know, either.
They also don’t know the immunity aspect of the disease and whether getting it provides any immunity at all.
They don’t know how much damage is done to other parts of the body beside the lungs – the heart, the brain, the kidneys – but they think it is more than just collateral damage.
They don’t know the pre-symptom transmission dangers – some believe that the most deadly transmission of the virus from one person to another is before the person is symptomatic. Others say that isn’t true.
Some victims who have recovered are still testing positive six weeks after recovery. Are they still contagious? We don’t know.
Current anti-body testing (the tests that will tell if you have had it, but weren’t initially tested) have been doing poorly in its testing phase.
As we move closer to opening up our state and country — as we try to balance health concerns and who we will lose, who is expendable in our society — with all the uncertainty and no end date or even any reasonable hope for mitigation, what does life look like over the next few years for us?
I can’t imagine eating at restaurant where even the cleanest of hands are touching utensils and plates and glasses. I can’t imagine being on a metro at rush hour or doing grocery shopping at any time other than off-peak hours. I can barely imagine being anywhere that asks people to congregate in even small groups – friends’ gatherings or small events or weddings or funerals. How will all of that work?
I just see a whole lot of “let’s get back to work” — and, of course, that is important as the risk of losing formerly stable jobs is real right now. The risk of losing homes and healthcare is high. We took a peek at our own investment accounts and realized that unless things change quickly, postponing a long-planned retirement date is likely going to be a reality. We can live with that,certainly there are so many who don’t have the luxury of an income right now or even a roof over their heads.
But, soon, we will all have to make the decision of whether an income is more important than staying healthy and at home (for those whose jobs don’t allow telecommuting.) How will that look – how do we ask people to determine whether to risk health for financial welfare?
Flattening the curve (even as Maryland is still on the upward trajectory of that curve) is good news, to be sure. But, it seems to me, that flattening will be just a moment in time before we go back to 45 days ago as the numbers begin to rise again.
None of us know how this ends. Right now, I’m wondering how we move forward.
